Thursday, July 21, 2016

Trump on NATO and his wife's birth country.

Trump's approach to NATO and Melania's  birth country

I am in France on vacation so my blogging is sparse.  I have a quick statement and question regarding Donald Trump's statement that he would not automatically defend new entrants to NATO.  


Slovenia the country where Melania Trump was born and still has family and friends is a new entrant to NATO.   Slovenia joined NATO in 2004 with several other countries.   Would Trump not come to the defense of Slovenia if Russia attacked and if Slovenia did not contribute 2 percent of GDP?    Can Slovenia and many other countries with lower per capita income reasonably afford 2 percent of GDP for NATO?

Monday, June 6, 2016

Performance and Debt Incurred at For-Profit Schools





Performance and Debt Incurred at For-Profit Schools

The post today provides data on the performance and debt incurred by students at 10 large for-profit schools.

The first table provides information on average annual cost, the graduation rate, the salary after attendance at the 10 schools.   The numbers are compared to national averages.

Debt is available for 9 of the 10 schools.   (I exclude the school in Puerto Rico because students at that school did not incur much debt.)   The second table looks at percent of students with federal loans, typical federal loan debt incurred and percent of former students who repaid some debt.

These debt numbers for the for-profit schools are compared to the debt numbers at California State University at Los Angeles, a large state university with a fairly low graduation rate.

The Performance Data:  

The source of the data is the college scorecard database.   I looked at all for-profit universities that had more than 15,000 undergraduate students.   The chart is sorted from largest school to smallest school.





Performance Statistics for Large For-Profit Schools
Average Annual Cost
Grad Rate
Salary After Attending
University of Phoenix On-line
$14,411
20%
$53,400
Ashford University
$20,983
21%
$37,500
Kaplan University
$19,162
16%
$34,400
American Public University System
$9,095
31%
NA
Grand Canyon University
$28,309
31%
$45,200
Everest University
$22,446
31%
$25,300
Devry University
$19,653
29%
NA
Full Sail University
$29,945
79%
$34,100
Colorado Technical University
$17,256
18%
$44,100
Institutio de Banco y Comercie Inc.
$4,954
61%
$16,300
National Average
$16,574
43%
$34,300


Comments on the data in the table:


Eight of the ten for-profit schools have an average annual cost greater than the national average of average annual costs for all schools. 

One of the two schools with low average annual cost was in Puerto Rico.  This school was the only school with a graduation rate over the national average.   The low salary after attending the school reflects differences in the economy of Puerto Rico and the mainland. 

Eight of the ten for-profit schools have a graduation rates below (in many cases substantially below) the national average.

Two of the ten schools do not report salary after attending the school.

The national average of salary after attending is really low probably because of community colleges.  

Five of the for-profit schools have a salary ten years after attending below $40,000.

The Debt Data:

The data on debt incurred and repaid at the for-profit schools are presented below.

Debt Statistics for Large Non-Profit Schools
% Students with Federal Loans
Typical Debt Incurred
% Students who Repaid Some Debt
University of Phoenix On-line
62%
$35,500
41%
Ashford University
74%
$32,813
43%
Kaplan University
65%
$30,500
36%
American Public University System
27%
$17,311
60%
Grand Canyon University
62%
$18,750
40%
Everest University
77%
$27,500
22%
Devry University
82%
$43,068
54%
Full Sail University
80%
$30,843
57%
Colorado Technical University
89%
$35,500
43%
Instittutio de Banco y Comercie Inc.
NA
NA
NA
Average
69%
$30,198
44%
Median for-profit schools
74%
$30,843
43%
California State University Los Angeles
39%
$14,125
66%

Comments:


Median percent of students with debt at the for-profit schools is 74%.  By comparison, the percent at Cal State LA is 39%


Median typical debt incurred at for-profit schools is $30,843.  Debt at Cal State LA is $14,125.


Median % of students in repayment at for-profit schools is 43%.  At Cal State LA this figure is 66%.


Concluding thoughts:  Society and the affected students would be much better off if fewer students attended for-profit schools and instead enrolled in public universities. 



People interested in the economics and politics of the growth of for-profit schools may also want to look at the following posts:

Graduation rates at Phoenix University:
http://policymemos.blogspot.com/2016/06/evaluating-graduation-rates-at-phoenix.html

Hillary Clinton's ties to for-profit schools:
http://2016memos.blogspot.com/2016/06/hillary-clintons-ties-to-for-profit.html

Saturday, June 4, 2016

Evaluating Graduation Rates at Phoenix University

Situation:   California has 21 public universities with over 15,000 undergraduate students.   The top part of the chart below list the graduation rates for the eight public universities with the lowest 25th percentile SAT scores.   The bottom panel of the chart has graduation rates for eight branches of Phoenix University in the western part of the United States.

How does the graduation rate of these public universities compare to the graduation rates of the for-profit branches of Phoenix University?


Data on Eight Large Public
Universities in California
Graduation Rates
1
Cal State Los Angeles
36
2
Cal State San Bernandino
42
3
Cal State Northridge
47
4
Cal State Fresno
48
5
Cal State Sacramento
42
6
San Francisco State University
46
7
San Jose State
48
8
Cal State Long Branch
59
Data on Eight Branches of Phoenix University in Western United States
Graduation Rates
1
Oregon Campus
19
2
Northern Nevada Campus
16
3
Central Valley Campus
19
4
Western Washington Campus
20
5
San Diego Campus
17
6
Bay Area Campus
14
7
Sacramento Campus
17
8
Hawaii Campus
24


Initial Comments:  There are 21 public universities with more than 15,000 undergraduate students in California.  The eight public universities presented for this comparison are the schools with the lowest Verbal 25th percentile SAT.    The verbal 25th percentile SAT score at these schools ranged from 380 to 450.  

I am not comparing Phoenix University to Cal Berkley or UCLA.   Such a comparison would be unfair.

I believe that it is reasonable to expect that a fairly expensive for-profit school should have a graduation rate comparable to the graduation rate for public schools with Verbal 25th percentile SAT scores below 450.

Is this expectation supported by the data?

Answer:   Statistics comparing the eight second-tier public universities to eight branches of Phoenix University are presented below.



Comparing Eight Second Tier Public Universities to
Eight Branches of Phoenix University
Public Universities
Eight Branches of Phoenix University
Min
36
14
Max
59
24
Mean
46
18.25
Median
46.5
18


Phoenix University has a graduation rate that is substantially below the graduation rate of public universities with Verbal SAT 25th percentile scores that are below 450.

Concluding thoughts:  Phoenix University is not cheap.   The average cost of the eight branches was near $19,000.   California State University Los Angeles has an average annual cost less than $14,000.


People who attend Phoenix University are also much more likely to default on their loans than people who attend Cal State LA.

In my view, the next Congress and the next President need to do more to restrict lending to universities that underperform their students and have low graduation rates and/or high default rates.

We know that Donald Trump is not going to reign in lending to for-profit schools.   He owned one.

Unfortunately, I don’t expect Hillary Clinton to do much better on this front.  She and her husband have taken a lot of money from for-profit schools, including the parent company of Phoenix University.